Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 303 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 23 2019 - 12Z Sat Jul 27 2019 Troughing over northeastern Russia into the Bering Sea will slowly ease southeastward into western Alaska/AKPen as an upper low weakens in the Gulf. A Rex block pattern over NW Canada (upper high to the north of the Gulf low) is forecast to break down as it gets pushed to the east. The models/ensembles were in reasonable agreement overall, with the GFS/ECMWF clustering better with their ensemble means (and each other) than the UKMET/Canadian. There were differences in the handling of systems through the Bering which was evidence in the large ensemble spread and thus lower confidence. Majority ensemble mean weighting should serve to minimize future shifts in the guidance. Lead system tracking toward the Panhandle next week will maintain a rather wet pattern there after the surface low/trough dissipate Wednesday. Precipitation amounts over the 5-day period may exceed 1-2" especially in favored areas. Lighter to modest precipitation is expected over much of the rest of the state given the several systems in the domain--into the NW areas/interior Tue/Wed, a Bering system into SW AK Thu/Fri, and the north Pacific system Tue/Wed affecting the Aleutians initially then into the Panhandle. Southcentral may escape the brunt of the rainfall until later next week as troughing moves toward the area. Temperatures near/above average to start the period (owing to ridging across the interior) will trend back toward within a few degrees of average later next week. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html