Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 PM EDT Thu Aug 01 2019
Valid 12Z Mon Aug 05 2019 - 12Z Fri Aug 09 2019
Overall, the guidance generally agrees that upper ridging builds
slowly northward in response to a departing shortwave trough and
an encroaching troughing/possible embedded upper low moving east
through northeast Asia. They vary with the strength of the system
moving across AK on Monday and Tuesday which should bring coastal
wind and moderate to heavy rain across western AK late Monday into
Tuesday as well as details surrounding the northeast Asia deep
layer cyclone. Southeast AK appears to be the sunniest area in
the state due to the more northerly storm track and increasing
ridging aloft with time. Used a blend of the 00z ECMWF, 00z
Canadian, 06z/12z GFS, 00z UKMET, 00z ECMWF, and 00z NAEFS mean
through the period, which is more deterministic heavy early for
the pressure, 500 hPa, and wind fields.
Roth
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Tue, Aug
4-Aug 6.
- High winds across portions of northern mainland Alaska, Sun, Aug
4.
- High winds across portions of western mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue,
Aug 5-Aug 6.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html