Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019
Valid 12Z Tue Aug 6 2019 - 12Z Sat Aug 10 2019
Model guidance is suggesting the possibility of a rex block
pattern developing over the North Pacific by the middle of next
week with an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Alaska, and a
broad low near 40 degrees north. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF
were close enough to their ensemble means to incorporate them into
this forecast, with increasing proportions of the means by days 6
through 8. By the end of the forecast period next Saturday, a
significant storm system may develop over the western Aleutians
and the southern Bering Sea, with the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all
indicating this in different locations.
In terms of sensible weather, the most active day appears to be
Tuesday across much of the Interior. A cold front is progged to
move through the region and produce scattered to numerous showers
and some thunderstorms, providing some relief to the ongoing
drought situation. Drier conditions are expected to ensue going
into the end of the week. The coolest conditions are forecast for
eastern portions of the Interior, with lows ranging from the upper
30s to near 50 degrees, and highs generally in the 60s to lower
70s for most of the state.
D. Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Aug
5-Aug 6.
- High winds across portions of western mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue,
Aug 5-Aug 6.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html