Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Valid 12Z Thu Aug 29 2019 - 12Z Mon Sep 02 2019 Upper troughing will settle into the Bering Sea and eventually western Alaska next week. The upper low in the Arctic will continue to pull away back toward the North Pole which will allow for WSW flow this weekend rather than NW flow across the North Slope and northeastern Alaska (warming trend in temperatures). Over the Panhandle, a drier period is in store with weak ridging. Models/ensembles were in decent agreement on the synoptic scale but differed on system timing/evolution late this week through the weekend. Focus will be on how the tail end of the lead Bering system Thu lifts into the eastern Aleutians this weekend. Deterministic models have been a bit quicker than the ensemble means with the developing wave around Friday that may lift across the island chain but have wavered on how deep this may be. Split between the 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF seemed to be reasonable given the inconsistencies which takes a modest system in the positively-tilted trough setup toward Bristol Bay and eventually the Gulf. This would bring increased rain chances for Southcentral next week after a lighter bout of rain with the lead dying occlusion Friday. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html