Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 05 2019 - 12Z Mon Sep 09 2019
There remains good guidance signal into later next week for
organized low system development to mainly effect northwestern
Alaska and maritime interests over the northern Bering Sea/Bering
Strait. A blend of the quite well clustered and reasonable 12 UTC
GFS and ECMWF was used in this period of above average forecast
confidence.
Upper trough amplifications back into the Aleutians and southern
Bering Sea then AKpen/Southwest AK still has support for a pattern
favorable for additional organized low system developments and
widespread heavy weather/rainfall potential from late week into
early next week along with lead southern stream low energies to
lift up into the southeastern Gulf of Alaska. A composite blend of
the best clustered ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensembles still seems
reasonable in this period of near average predictability.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html