Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 321 PM EDT Thu Oct 03 2019 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 07 2019 - 12Z Fri Oct 11 2019 Models/ensembles show an amplified but progressive pattern in place across Alaska during the extended period. Consensus among the guidance was quite good during roughly the first half of the forecast period (Mon-Wed). Models show a relatively deep low pressure system moving east across the Bering Sea to the west coast of mainland Alaska, with a weakening surface low initially in the Gulf of Alaska as well (which is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of the Panhandle). A heavily deterministic blend including the 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS was used as a basis for the forecast during days 4-6. By later in the period, spread quickly begins to increase on the possible development of another low in the Gulf (or farther south), and with the next incoming shortwave and low pressure system entering the Bering Sea by day 8 (Fri). Given highly variable solutions, opted to lean heavily on the ECENS/NAEFS ensemble means for the forecast during days 7-8. Ryan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sun, Oct 6. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html