Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EDT Thu Oct 03 2019
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 07 2019 - 12Z Fri Oct 11 2019
Models/ensembles show an amplified but progressive pattern in
place across Alaska during the extended period. Consensus among
the guidance was quite good during roughly the first half of the
forecast period (Mon-Wed). Models show a relatively deep low
pressure system moving east across the Bering Sea to the west
coast of mainland Alaska, with a weakening surface low initially
in the Gulf of Alaska as well (which is expected to produce heavy
rain across portions of the Panhandle). A heavily deterministic
blend including the 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS was used as a basis for the
forecast during days 4-6. By later in the period, spread quickly
begins to increase on the possible development of another low in
the Gulf (or farther south), and with the next incoming shortwave
and low pressure system entering the Bering Sea by day 8 (Fri).
Given highly variable solutions, opted to lean heavily on the
ECENS/NAEFS ensemble means for the forecast during days 7-8.
Ryan
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle,
Sun, Oct 6.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html