Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 228 PM EDT Sat Oct 05 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 09 2019 - 12Z Sun Oct 13 2019 Models and ensembles show an amplified but progressive pattern in place across Alaska and vicinity for the extended period. Guidance consensus was good into day 4/Wed and the larger scale flow evolution even seems fairly well depicted by most guidance through day 8. Small-mid scale weather focusing systems embedded within the overall flow do offer increasing timing variance days 5-8, but the 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles and 12 UTC GEFS solutions seem fairly well clustered. Accordingly, the WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from that favored composite blend. Models show a relatively deep low pressure system moving east across the Bering Sea to the west coast of mainland Alaska into midweek, with energies tranferring inland and with ernest into the northern Gulf of Alaska and southern/Southeast Alaska Thu/Fri before exiting into Canada. This system includes some remnant tropical moisture from what was Typhoon Mitag, so expect some enhanced precipitation potential and a continued maritime risk. There also remains a decent guidance signal supporting development of another well organized weather focusing low pressure system across the Bering Sea/Aleutians/Southwest Alaska Thu/Fri. This system is also expected to emerge over the northern Gulf of Alaska to feed an additional chance for heavier precipitation into southern then southeastern Alaska next weekend along with an associated maritime threat. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html