Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Tue Oct 08 2019
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 12 2019 - 12Z Wed Oct 16 2019
Relatively benign weather is expected to start out the
medium-range period in Alaska during the weekend before super
typhoon Hagibis in the western Pacific transforms into a very
robust low pressure system and then moves across the Bering Sea
early next week. The latest model guidance agrees pretty well
with this overall scenario. Very high winds and significant waves
can be expected to overspread the Aleutians on Monday and Tuesday
along with the possibility of heavy rain. The WPC Alaska grids
were derived using a general compromise of the 00Z EC mean, 06Z
GEFS mean, the 12Z GFS and the 00Z ECMWF for Days 4 and 5. The
00Z NAEFS was introduced for Day 5 with less weights on GFS and
ECMWF components. Day 7 and 8 grids were comprised of a general
blend of the 00Z EC mean, 06Z GEFS mean, and the 00Z NAEFS. Less
of the 00Z ECMWF was used than usual since its track of
extratropical Hagibis deviates too far from its ensemble mean on
Days 7 and 8. On the other hand, the 12Z GFS shows a track that
is very agreeable with the 00Z EC mean as well as the 06Z GEFS.
Kong
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Alaska Hazards...
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and
mainland Alaska, Fri-Sat, Oct 11-Oct 12.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and
mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Oct 14-Oct 15.
- High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Sun-Tue, Oct 13-Oct
15.
- High significant wave heights for coastal portions of the
Aleutians, Sun-Tue, Oct 13-Oct 15.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html