Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 256 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 31 2019 - 12Z Mon Nov 04 2019 Upper ridging is forecast to remain just south of the Gulf of Alaska late this week through next weekend as additional ridging moves through the Bering Sea into western Alaska. This will favor troughing from the North Pacific initially into southwestern Alaska then the Panhandle. Models and ensembles show generally good agreement on the longwave pattern evolution and a blend of the 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian sufficed to start (with some ensemble weighting to smooth out some timing/track differences with the lead system over the AKPEN). ECMWF and its ensembles nudged the track of that system northwestward into Bristol Bay vs staying just to the southeast of AKPEN and into Kodiak, so a modest compromise was used as the surface low should weaken and reform in the Gulf regardless. That front will push into the Panhandle but linger for a couple days atop upper ridging to its south. By next Sun/Mon, as ridging moves into the western mainland, some upper troughing could push the front southward to the southern Panhandle. Back to the Bering, the 00Z ECMWF was likely too aggressive with its surface low, tracking it right into the upper ridge. Preferred to take the system northeastward into eastern Russia like the ensembles. Rain/snow will spread across the AKPEN and Southcentral into southeastern areas later in the week as the lead Pacific front makes steady progress northeastward then eastward. Precipitation will linger over the Panhandle with WSW flow aloft around the stationary frontal boundary. Next Bering system may only affect the Aleutians if it refrains from moving eastward into the ridge. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html