Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 322 PM EDT Fri Nov 01 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Nov 05 2019 - 12Z Sat Nov 09 2019 Upper ridging over the Gulf, western Aleutians, and northeastern Russia will consolidate toward the Bering Strait midweek next week, favoring troughing to its southwest and south. The models/ensembles were in good agreement through the period on the longwave pattern but differed in the smaller wavelength features, including Tue/Wed around Bristol Bay. There, consensus has shifted toward allowing some mid-level vorticity to pinch off to the southwest into the in-situ upper low south of the AkPen, tugging at the system a bit. Overall, there was still little change to the surface fronts from 24 hrs ago. A varying multi-model/ensemble blend among (mostly) the 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF and the 06Z GEFS mean/00Z ECMWF ensemble mean was used as a starting point. Preferred to rely mostly on the ensembles for next Thu-Sat with the evolution of the complex/multi-frontal system south of the Aleutians/Southcentral given the low predictability. Up to that point, deterministic models showed the chance of a coherent surface low moving toward the coast (Kodiak to Kenai) as the front weakens. How quickly this may happen is still a question. By the end of the period, upper pattern preference suggests a slower but steady movement of the system in the Pacific toward the Gulf/Panhandle with high pressure over most of the interior. Rain/snow should mostly be confined to coastal and near-inland areas from the Aleutians and across Kodiak Island, attempting to move into the Panhandle by next Fri and more likely by Saturday. Temperatures will remain near to above average over much of the state, especially the North Slope, with the exception over the Panhandle. High pressure (higher than 1040mb) will slide southeastward through the Yukon and funnel cooler temperatures through the region on easterly flow. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html