Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EDT Sat Nov 02 2019
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 06 2019 - 12Z Sun Nov 10 2019
An upper high will center near the Bering Strait next Wednesday
through the weekend, favoring troughing around its periphery with
a storm track beneath the Aleutians and into/south of the Gulf.
The models/ensembles were in good agreement through the period on
the longwave pattern but continued to struggle with the smaller
wavelength features. Overall, there was still little change to the
surface fronts from 24 hrs ago with an emphasis on the ensembles
by the end of next week. A varying multi-model/ensemble blend
among the 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF and the 06Z GEFS mean/00Z ECMWF
ensemble mean was used as a starting point. Trended toward more
weight to the ECMWF with the ECMWF ensemble mean as the GFS
drifted from that better clustering.
Rain/snow should mostly be confined to coastal and near-inland
areas from the Aleutians and across Kodiak Island into the
Panhandle as systems track beneath the Arctic drape across British
Columbia. Temperatures will remain near to above average over much
of the state, especially the North Slope and southwestern
Alaska/Southcentral. The exception will be over the eastern
interior beneath high pressure and over the Panhandle where the
slipping Canadian high will funnel in cooler temperatures on
easterly flow.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html