Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 206 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2019 Valid 12Z Thu Nov 07 2019 - 12Z Mon Nov 11 2019 Longwave pattern continues to be focused on the upper high near the Bering Strait to the North Slope. This will favor troughing especially to its south with a storm track along the Aleutians and toward the southern Gulf. Models and ensembles struggled with the smaller-scale features around the upper high, out of the central Pacific, and through the longwave trough east of 165W. With less agreement between any deterministic model and an ensemble consensus (at leas the GEFS mean and ECMWF ensemble means were relatively close to each other), included much more weighting of the ensembles for the start of the forecast with a trend toward only the ensembles for the end of the period. Maintained a similar system progression from 24 hrs ago given the spread. Rain/snow should mostly be confined to coastal and near-inland areas from the Aleutians and across Kodiak Island into the Panhandle as systems track beneath the Arctic drape across the southern Panhandle into British Columbia. Heaviest amounts will likely target the southern Panhandle near the better convergence and moisture plume with each system. Several inches of liquid precipitation are possible over the 5-day period. Temperatures will remain near to above average over much of the state, especially the North Slope and southwestern Alaska/Southcentral. The exception will be over the eastern interior beneath surface high pressure and over the Panhandle where the slipping Canadian high will funnel in cooler temperatures on easterly flow. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html