Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2019
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 07 2019 - 12Z Mon Nov 11 2019
Longwave pattern continues to be focused on the upper high near
the Bering Strait to the North Slope. This will favor troughing
especially to its south with a storm track along the Aleutians and
toward the southern Gulf. Models and ensembles struggled with the
smaller-scale features around the upper high, out of the central
Pacific, and through the longwave trough east of 165W. With less
agreement between any deterministic model and an ensemble
consensus (at leas the GEFS mean and ECMWF ensemble means were
relatively close to each other), included much more weighting of
the ensembles for the start of the forecast with a trend toward
only the ensembles for the end of the period. Maintained a similar
system progression from 24 hrs ago given the spread.
Rain/snow should mostly be confined to coastal and near-inland
areas from the Aleutians and across Kodiak Island into the
Panhandle as systems track beneath the Arctic drape across the
southern Panhandle into British Columbia. Heaviest amounts will
likely target the southern Panhandle near the better convergence
and moisture plume with each system. Several inches of liquid
precipitation are possible over the 5-day period.
Temperatures will remain near to above average over much of the
state, especially the North Slope and southwestern
Alaska/Southcentral. The exception will be over the eastern
interior beneath surface high pressure and over the Panhandle
where the slipping Canadian high will funnel in cooler
temperatures on easterly flow.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html