Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 329 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2019 Valid 12Z Fri Nov 08 2019 - 12Z Tue Nov 12 2019 Pattern remains quite uncertain from the central Pacific northeastward across Southeastern Alaska/Panhandle. Upper high forecast has trended toward a quicker weakening around Sunday before again (perhaps) building to the north of northeastern Russia (Wrangel Island) next week. This still favors troughing south of the Aleutians into the southern Gulf and Panhandle, with increased troughing into the Bering Sea. Uncertainty increases from west to east along 50N with multiple smaller-scale features lifting out of the northeastern Pacific and weakening before a more coherent/significant system enters the picture next week. Blend of the 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF and their ensemble means offered a reasonable starting point as the ill-defined means themselves were at least agreeable if not detailed. The GFS/ECMWF were close enough to their means that a nearly 50/50 blend maintained some detail at the expense of some continuity from the previous forecast. However, change in the upper pattern by this degree in the ensembles necessitated a larger change than usual in some areas. UKMET/Canadian departed from the ensemble mean consensus early in the period around late Friday. Rain/snow should mostly be confined to coastal and near-inland areas from the Aleutians and across Kodiak Island into the Panhandle as old occlusions weaken offshore. Heaviest amounts will likely target the southern Panhandle near the better convergence and moisture axis with each system. Several inches of liquid precipitation are possible over the 5-day period around Annette. Temperatures will remain near to above average over much of the state, especially the North Slope and southwestern Alaska/Southcentral where 850mb temperature anomalies will remain near +1 to +2 sigma. The exception will be over the eastern interior beneath surface high pressure and over the Panhandle where the slipping Canadian high will funnel in cooler temperatures on easterly flow later this week into the weekend. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html