Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 607 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 23 2019 - 12Z Wed Nov 27 2019 Upper pattern will transition toward a flatter flow next week with troughing generally remaining in the Bering Sea. Models and ensembles showed good agreement on the pattern unfolding over the high latitudes with less agreement in the mid-latitudes of the Pacific. Less-predictable smaller-scale waves show little consistency in the models and were smoothed out via a blend. 12Z GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET offered a reasonably-clustered solution to start with the weakening system over the interior/SW Alaska Saturday with a lead-in heavy precipitation threat. Next two systems of interest were from the west through the Bering and to the south heading toward Hadai Gwaii and maybe the southern Panhandle. For the Bering system, the Canadian and ECMWF and its ensembles were generally quicker than the GFS and its ensembles with this system that flattens out and likely redevelops its triple point low into the Gulf by next Wed. Flattening of the pattern and a quicker trend in the guidance suggested a majority weighting of the ECMWF/Canadian/ECMWF ensembles. To the south, GFS has wavered on whether or not to detach an upper/sfc low in the mid-latitudes or keep it progressive toward the ENE. 12Z GFS went back to the detached solution but the other guidance favored a progressive sfc low. Depicted this scenario in the progs which still seems to be supported by the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean. Wet period for the Panhandle will slacken after Saturday as the front departs the area. Bering system will bring wind/rain to the Aleutians but will be progressive. Snow is likely on the north side of the frontal zone (warm front ahead of the main system) in warm advection. Temperatures will likely be above average over most of the state but trending cooler around Bristol Bay with the approaching Bering system with increasing easterly flow. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Fri, Nov 22. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html