Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 433 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 Valid 12Z Mon Nov 25 2019 - 12Z Fri Nov 29 2019 A robust Bering Sea system will lift toward northwestern Alaska Tue/Wed next week as the upper flow then trends toward quasi-zonal. An uncertain evolution in the central North Pacific has slowly come into better agreement, with a closed low south of the Aleutians eventually lifting north-northeastward and weakening. 12Z GFS/ECMWF offered reasonable clustering with the 12Z GEFS mean and 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean so that a blended solution served as a good starting point for the forecast through about next Thursday. Question by then is how the central Pacific system ejects toward the Gulf and how deep it may be. With a trend toward flatter flow (though deepening troughing over the western CONUS), driven by a shifting in the anomaly pattern upstream off Asia, a weaker solution was favored. In the Bering, model consensus (except the 12Z Canadian) suggested a deeper system than depicted 24 hrs ago but keeping the parent low over northeastern Russia. Cold front will bring in a surge of southerly winds to the west coast of Alaska as near-offshore ice is still forming. This area was depicted on the WPC day 3-7 hazards chart again for the wind/wave/precipitation threat. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of western Alaska, Mon-Tue, Nov 25-Nov 26. - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Wed, Nov 27. - High winds across portions of western Alaska, Mon-Wed, Nov 25-Nov 27. - High significant wave heights for coastal portions of western Alaska, Mon-Tue, Nov 25-Nov 26. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html