Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
519 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2019
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 03 2019 - 12Z Sat Dec 07 2019
Suppression of the westerlies will continue next week as a
strengthening west Pacific jet favors increased troughing over the
Bering/Aleutians late next week. Lead-in pattern also features
Bering troughing that will slip southeastward as narrow ridging
pushes across the AKPEN/Southcentral next Thu-Sat. The
models/ensembles were in good agreement overall with expected
detail differences to start, so a blend sufficed for Tue-Thu.
Surface high pressure will settle over northern/northeastern areas
which will allow temperatures to fall to the -20s/-30s given
enough clearing especially Thu/Fri.
For next Fri/Sat, western Bering system will likely move eastward
in pieces, with the first low pressure replaced by a wave along
the front Thu-Fri. Ensembles favor a deep system below 980mb if it
can materialize as a coherent low. Agreement is above average for
a 7-8 day lead time on the longwave pattern. This system will push
eastward along the Aleutians with generally quiet weather for the
rest of the state.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazard:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle,
Mon, Dec 2.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians,
Fri, Dec 6.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html