Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 526 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Dec 04 2019 - 12Z Sun Dec 08 2019 Storm track will largely stay in the Bering and across the Aleutians into the AKPEN and near Southcentral next Wed-Sun, forced by an incoming robust upper low. Upper ridging will move eastward across the North Pacific into western British Columbia ahead of the upper low. This will favor a quiet period for interior/northeastern Alaska where some clearing skies and modest surface high pressure will allow temperatures to fall to the -20s/-30s and perhaps around -40 in the colder areas overnight. Models/ensembles continue to show good agreement overall with expected detail differences in how the systems evolve in the Bering. Ensembles depict potential for a deeper system in the 960s mb assuming one low eventually takes over and deepens, but the deterministic models do show two lows initially across the Aleutians around Thu, perhaps consolidating but then again detaching as a triple point across the AKPEN. Either way, precipitation will expand across the island chain and into southwestern areas and eventually Southcentral. Favored the 12Z ECMWF/Canadian over the GFS by the end of the period as the GFS was likely too quick to bring the front into the Panhandle by next Sunday. Preferred the slower solutions given the fairly amplified flow and general blockiness in the Pacific east of the Dateline. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html