Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 550 PM EST Fri Dec 06 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Dec 10 2019 - 12Z Sat Dec 14 2019 Upper ridging is forecast to drift slowly north-northwestward out of the Yukon into the Arctic Ocean late next week into the weekend. This will favor troughing to its southwest, out of the Bering Sea and also from the North Pacific. Main system of interest will be a wound-up robust low moving toward Kodiak next Wed-Thu per the consensus of the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS mean and 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean. 12Z GFS pulled farther northwestward on the other side of the AKPEN like many GEFS members, but preferred to stay with the larger cluster of solutions. Next system will enter the Bering and move east-southeastward through the Aleutians. Blend of the 12Z ECMWF/GEFS mean and 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean forged a good starting point for the latter days that was a bit slower than the forecast 24 hrs ago. After a brief cold snap over interior portions of Alaska, temperatures will largely be near/above average with a southerly component to the flow and near/above average heights and low level temperatures (850mb temperature anomalies about +1 to +2 sigma in the ECMWF ensemble mean). Precipitation will be focused along the coast from Southcentral to the Panhandle around the occlusion along with stiff easterly winds. Some rainfall could be heavy along the coast with significant snowfall inland and in mountainous areas next week before a drier pattern into next weekend. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of southern Alaska, Mon, Dec 9, and Thu, Dec 12. - High significant wave heights for coastal portions of mainland Alaska, Mon, Dec 9. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html