Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 546 PM EST Sat Dec 07 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Dec 11 2019 - 12Z Sun Dec 15 2019 Upper ridging is forecast to drift slowly north-northwestward out of the Yukon into the Arctic Ocean late next week into the weekend. This will favor reinforced/reinvigorated troughing to its southwest out of the Bering Sea and also from the North Pacific. Main system of interest will be a wound-up robust low moving toward Kodiak next Wed-Thu per the consensus of the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS mean and 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean. 12Z GFS again pulled farther northwestward on the other side of the AKPEN like some ensemble members, but preferred to stay with the larger cluster of solutions that linger the parent low just east of Kodiak by early Fri. Next system will enter the Bering and move east-southeastward through the Aleutians, with a trend toward a bit quicker progression after a bit slower progression two days ago. 12Z GFS fit well with the consensus with the Bering system and was brought into the blend again for next weekend. This system may slide into the Gulf with perhaps triple point redevelopment around Kodiak. Temperatures will largely be near/above average with a southerly component to the flow and near/above average heights and low level temperatures (850mb temperature anomalies about +1 to +2 sigma). Precipitation will be focused along the coast from Southcentral to the Panhandle around the occlusion along with stiff easterly winds. Some rainfall could be heavy along the coast with significant snowfall inland and in mountainous areas next week before a drier pattern between systems. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html