Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 623 PM EST Mon Dec 09 2019 Valid 12Z Fri Dec 13 2019 - 12Z Tue Dec 17 2019 Upper ridging will meander over the Arctic Ocean which will favor successive troughing out of the Bering Sea and into the Gulf. The storm track will be fairly progressive with rather well-defined surface systems. After an old parent low dissipates near Kodiak Fri, focus will turn to a system pushing through the southern Bering Sea near the Aleutians. Deterministic models have shifted northward to join the ensemble means from 24 hrs ago with such a track. The latest 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET formed a good starting consensus position as the system (and its likely multiple lows along the occlusion) develops its triple point near Kodiak by Sun. By then, models diverge around the ensemble means but a split among the GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean sufficed to start. Trend thereafter was for a bit slower progression through the Gulf as the upper pattern may stay wavy and not become zonal. This is likely due to the next system into the western Bering that has trended stronger. It too may take a track along the Aleutians and a blended solution remained through next Tue. Temperatures will slowly trend from near/above average back toward more typical December values by next week over at least the interior. Precipitation will progress with each system from the Aleutians to Southcentral to the Panhandle through the period. Some enhanced rainfall/snowfall is possible along the coast and in favored mountainous areas of the Kenai peninsula (southeastward-facing) and perhaps Kodiak given the nearby surface low tracks, but did not justify a heavy precipitation threat on the Hazards chart. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html