Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 600 PM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 Valid 12Z Sat Jan 04 2020 - 12Z Wed Jan 08 2020 Active weather across the Alaska Panhandle should gradually subside during the weekend as a surface cyclone over the Gulf of Alaska weakens while the main jet stream pushes farther inland across British Columbia. Models are in very good agreement on this scenario. Thereafter, models have been indicating the possibility of the next cyclone moving into the Gulf of Alaska early next week but with a fair amount of spread. In particular, the GFS has been advertising a weaker and slower system than what the ECMWF shows. The 06Z GEFS did not offer a better agreement with the EC solution either. However, the 12Z GEFS switched to a faster and a more developed solution that agreed quite well with the 00Z EC mean. Based on these considerations, the WPC grids for Alaska were based on 65% to 70% blend of the 12Z ECMWF and the 00Z EC mean with 30% to 35% of the 12Z GEFS. This blend yields a cyclone that is stronger and more progressive than the consensus, which agrees fairly well with WPC continuity. Toward the middle of next week, a majority of the 00Z EC mean was used. This yields a larger scale occluded cyclone skirting along the Aleutians as the previous cyclone gradually weakens over the Gulf of Alaska. In terms of sensible weather, stormy conditions across the Alaska Panhandle should gradually subside during the weekend. As the next cyclone forecast to move into the Gulf of Alaska, winds and waves along with snow should be on the increase once again from coastal southern Alaska to the Panhandle by Monday, lasting into Tuesday. Increasing storminess should also be spreading from west to east across the Aleutians Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, clear skies and radiational cooling are expected to bring frigid conditions into southwestern Alaska where actual temperatures are forecast to dip below -30 degrees for the interior sections. Kong Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Tue WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html