Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 424 PM EST Sat Jan 04 2020 Valid 12Z Wed Jan 08 2020 - 12Z Sun Jan 12 2020 ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... It remains the case that upper ridging is forecast to build over the southern Arctic Ocean early next week and heights rise underneath over the North Slope/Interior to end the recent cold snap. Active and fairly progressive flow cuts underneath into a stormy Bering/Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska. Models and ensembles continue to struggle with embedded system timing in the flow, but overall still align adequately with the larger scale flow evolution. This will carry a couple areas of low pressure toward and into the Panhandle early-mid next week. As these systems exit into British Columbia, the main focus shifts to the Aleutians and Bering Sea as a series of deep lows with a threat of high winds/waves and heavy precipitation feed into the region all next week, with weather working with some vigor into the western/southwestern mainland into next weekend. Renewed lead triple point low developments will meanwhile work downstream into an unsettled Gulf of Alaska again, with renewed risk later next week then again next weekend to threaten maritime interests and onshore into the southern/southeastern Alaskan tier. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensembles offer more embedded system variance than preferable, but forecast spread has improved compared to yesterday. These guidance pieces though do seem sufficiently clustered at mid-larger scales to allow preference for a composite blend along with the 19 UTC National Blend of Models to maintain good WPC continuity. Manual adjustments were applied to trend to deeper Aleutian/Bering Sea low developments with an increased maritime and coastal threat considering favorable support aloft and trend of decreasing uncertainty. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html