Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
437 PM EST Sun Jan 05 2020
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 09 2020 - 12Z Mon Jan 13 2020
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Heights rises over the North Slope/Interior will end the current
cold snap. A main weather focus will shift to the Aleutians and
Bering Sea as a series of deep lows with a substantial threat of
high winds/waves and heavy precipitation feed into the region all
week, with lead weather working with some vigor into the
western/southwestern mainland next weekend. Energetic lead triple
point low developments will meanwhile work downstream across an
unsettled Gulf of Alaska Thu/Fri then again in about a week that
would threaten maritime interests and onshore into the
southern/southeastern Alaskan tier.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble forecasts are
better clustered than normal through about the next week,
bolstering forecast confidence. Prefer a composite blend along
with the 19 UTC National Blend of Models to maintain good WPC
continuity. Manual adjustments were applied to trend to deeper
Aleutian/Bering Sea low developments with an increased maritime
and coastal threat considering favorable support aloft and trend
of decreasing uncertainty.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html