Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 604 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 Valid 12Z Tue Jan 14 2020 - 12Z Sat Jan 18 2020 ...Overview... Upper ridging and a closed high will migrate toward the North Slope next week as the cold remains over eastern/southeastern portions of the state. Milder air will push into western/northwestern areas as height rise. Precipitation will be below average with a suppressed storm track. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z GFS/ECMWF/Canadian offered reasonable clustering with the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean to start the period, Tue-Thu, with high pressure shifting to the eastern interior, maintaining the cold there and to the Panhandle. By Thu, GFS started to be on the quicker side of the spread with system south of the Aleutians, though it did later pair well with the ECMWF by next Sat. Canadian was much farther south and not preferred. To the north, ensemble trend suggested more support for a closed high to drift toward the North Slope compared to 24 hrs ago, but the 12Z ECMWF was farther north than most guidance. Trended toward the ensemble means, with more weight on the ECMWF ensemble mean, for next Fri/Sat which tempered the northward extent of the upper high. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Much of eastern/southeastern Alaska will have lingering much below normal temperatures as arctic high pressure ~1040mb only slowly retreats into NW Canada. To the west, with increased southerly flow after Tuesday, milder air will lift northward and push eastward with time as upper heights rise, but staying west of about 150W as higher pressures remain. Precipitation will be light given the storm track well to the south, focused over the Aleutians (heavier farther west), the western coastline, and over Kodiak and the southern Kenai peninsula. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Jan 13-Jan 14. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Mon-Thu, Jan 13-Jan 16. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html