Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 529 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020 Valid 12Z Wed Feb 26 2020 - 12Z Sun Mar 01 2020 Spread among model guidance across Alaska and the North Pacific during the extended forecast period continues to improve as guidance gets a somewhat better handle on the evolving large scale flow pattern over the upcoming week. Some of the specific details of individual systems continue to be a bit murky, however. A closed upper-level high should gradually weaken across the northern Bering Sea by late in the week. This setup will allow for increasing influence from arctic flow across much of mainland Alaska, with another round of very cold temperatures seeming likely. Farther south, a very active North Pacific storm track will plague the Aleutians and the Gulf of Alaska with frequent low pressure systems spaced 24-36 hours apart. An area of low pressure is forecast to move northeast across the western Gulf of Alaska on Wed. The GFS and UKMET were the solutions most well-situated in the center of ensemble member spread, and these solutions were weighted heavily during days 4-5. By day 5 (Thu) another similar low pressure system is forecast to enter the Gulf of Alaska, this one a bit farther east than the one a day earlier. Both of these systems are expected to bring potentially heavy precipitation to portions of southern mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle. Farther west, models show the potential for a couple low pressure system to affect the Aleutians later next week, one Thu night-Fri and another one (the stronger of the two) Fri night-Sat. Due to high variability and spread among deterministic guidance, leaned much closer to ensemble means by later next week, along with some continued use of the GFS, which was reasonably well-centered within the ensemble spread. Ryan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html