Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 653 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020 Valid 12Z Mon Mar 02 2020 - 12Z Fri Mar 06 2020 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather Highlights/Threats... A dangerous storm will cross the Aleutians into the southern Bering Sea this weekend will linger into Monday along with unsettled weather conditions. Meanwhile, active flow downstream across the Gulf of Alaska offers a pattern with potential for periods of enhanced precipitation into the Southeast Panhandle. Guidance is showing an increasing signal that potent Arctic troughing will then dig sharply down through the eastern Bering Sea and western Interior Alaska Monday/Tuesday in an unsettled/snowy pattern. The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF solutions now seem reasonably well in line with 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensembles. There is ample risk that digging Arctic energies would reach the Gulf of Alaska mid-later next week. Specifics and interaction the uncertain northeast Pacific flow energies withstanding, the pattern seems likely to favor deep layered cyclogenesis over the northern and eastern Gulf. This would offer a significant maritime hazard along with an increasingly unsettled and wet pattern from southern to especially southeastern Alaska. A blend of the reasonably consistent and compatable GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means was coordinated with local WFOs to use for these longer time frames amid growing model variance. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation for parts of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Mar 1-Mar 2. - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Sun, Mar 1. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Thu, Mar 1-Mar 5. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Thu, Mar 3-Mar 5. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html