Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
653 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 02 2020 - 12Z Fri Mar 06 2020
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather
Highlights/Threats...
A dangerous storm will cross the Aleutians into the southern
Bering Sea this weekend will linger into Monday along with
unsettled weather conditions. Meanwhile, active flow downstream
across the Gulf of Alaska offers a pattern with potential for
periods of enhanced precipitation into the Southeast Panhandle.
Guidance is showing an increasing signal that potent Arctic
troughing will then dig sharply down through the eastern Bering
Sea and western Interior Alaska Monday/Tuesday in an
unsettled/snowy pattern. The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF solutions now seem
reasonably well in line with 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensembles.
There is ample risk that digging Arctic energies would reach the
Gulf of Alaska mid-later next week. Specifics and interaction the
uncertain northeast Pacific flow energies withstanding, the
pattern seems likely to favor deep layered cyclogenesis over the
northern and eastern Gulf. This would offer a significant maritime
hazard along with an increasingly unsettled and wet pattern from
southern to especially southeastern Alaska. A blend of the
reasonably consistent and compatable GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means was
coordinated with local WFOs to use for these longer time frames
amid growing model variance.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation for parts of the Alaska Panhandle and
mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Mar 1-Mar 2.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians,
Sun, Mar 1.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland
Alaska, Sun-Thu, Mar 1-Mar 5.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland
Alaska, Tue-Thu, Mar 3-Mar 5.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html