Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 644 PM EST Wed Mar 04 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Mar 08 2020 - 12Z Thu Mar 12 2020 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... A broad upper level ridge will be situated over the Aleutians and the Gulf region to begin the forecast period on Sunday, with a positively tilted trough and a surface low reaching the Aleutians and the Gulf region by the early part of next week. Surface high pressure continues to govern the weather pattern over the northern Interior region and the Arctic Coast. A second low pressure system likely begins approaching the Bering Sea region on Wednesday. The 12Z models and ensemble means were in generally good agreement to start. The main feature of interest will be a low over the Bering Sea that will cross the Aleutians and traverse the northern Gulf region. The EC mean is initially a little farther to the northwest, but becomes closer to the model consensus by day 5 and 6 once it reaches the northern Gulf. More noteworthy differences appear by Wednesday with the ECMWF tracking the low quicker along the Panhandle region while the GFS and ensemble means are slower with its progression. It remains the case that the ensembles were in better agreement than the deterministic guidance, and therefore a greater weighting towards the means by this time period was incorporated. A weaker storm system will likely cross the Bering by next Wednesday, although confidence on the details is limited at this time with the GFS suggesting a more southern track and the ECMWF well to the north. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Precipitation is expected to increase across the Panhandle region by Monday and into Tuesday with the Gulf low slowly approaching from the west. Precipitation could be locally heavy with enhanced moisture convergence, especially for windward terrain. Temperatures will continue to be frigid for the northern third of the state with subzero highs expected north of the Brooks range. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle to the coast sections of southern Alaska, Sun-Tue, Mar 8-Mar 10. - Heavy snow across portions of southern Alaska, Mon, Mar 9. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of eastern mainland Alaska, Sat, Mar 7. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of western mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Mar 9-Mar 10. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html