Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 711 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Valid 12Z Fri Mar 27 2020 - 12Z Tue Mar 31 2020 ...Colder for much of the Interior... Troughing will settle over the Interior during the medium range period as upper ridging noses into the Bering Strait late this weekend. A complicated evolution of a splitting upper low south of Kamchatka may be coming into better agreement in the latest 12Z deterministic models, and perhaps leading the ensemble means that were straddled among differing solutions (and thereby much less detailed). Though the past few days of runs have been fairly inconsistent in how the unraveling upper low evolves, what has been consistent has been the upper ridge/trough couplet across the region by the weekend into next week. Aside from the 12Z UKMET (too slow or too fast over different areas), the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian provided a good starting point that still shows an incoming system through the Bering Sea on Friday as an arctic front dives southward toward the Alaska Range. That will settle into the Gulf Saturday with another system south of the Aleutians moving eastward. That western system has trended stronger but should still remain just south of the island chain. Still relatively low confidence there but likely much less impact to the region than the prior system. For next Sun-Tue, the 12Z Canadian moved the upper ridge much farther eastward than the GFS/ECMWF and ensemble means (and continuity) and was not preferred. Otherwise, trended toward much more ensemble weighting as the upper ridge/high potentially breaks off into the Beaufort Sea, allowing westerly flow across the Bering and AKPEN. Elsewhere, the Interior will be generally drier and remaining cold (temperatures 10-20 deg below normal) except for the North Slope. The Panhandle will see the most precipitation--one to three inches area-wide with more amounts farther south near the main low or triple point of the several systems. Fracasso Hazards: - Much below normal temperatures across much of northern Alaska, Fri, Mar 27. - Much below normal temperatures across much of central, southern, and eastern Alaska, Sat-Mon, Mar 28-Mar 30. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html