Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
522 PM EDT Thu Apr 02 2020
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2020 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2020
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Threats
Highlights...
The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was mainly derived from
a composite blend of reasonably well clustered guidance from the
12 UTC GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with
the 19 UTC National Blend of Models. This maintain good WPC
continuity in a pattern with near average predictability.
Ample Bering Sea storm energy will work robustly inland over the
cooling/snowy Interior and North Slope leading into this medium
range period. Energy transference will then support low/system
formations over the Gulf of Alaska next week. This offers a
maritime threat for the Gulf along with a heavy precipitation
threat for southern and especially Southeast Alaskan into midweek.
Upstream, there still remains a good signal for the gradual
approach of amplified mid-upper level closed low/trough and
deepened low from over the north Pacific toward the Aleutians
mid-later next week along with an associated weather focus and
risk.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun, Apr
5.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and
mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Apr 7-Apr 8.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun, Apr 5.
- High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland
Alaska, Tue-Wed, Apr 7-Apr 8.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland
Alaska, Sun, Apr 5.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html