Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 758 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2020 - 12Z Tue Apr 14 2020 ...Overview and model guidance... The latest suite of 12Z Guidance is in good agreement on the upper level ridge axis extending northward across the Gulf of Alaska and inland towards the Interior for the beginning of the forecast period. A closed low is situated north of the Arctic coast and this drifts slowly eastward through the upcoming weekend. Model differences are most apparent with a low situated over the Bering Sea, with the 12Z UKMET considerably more progressive than the other solutions through Saturday. More model uncertainty exists with the shortwave trough tracking across the Aleutians this weekend, with the GFS and CMC indicating a slower and more amplified system, whilst the ECMWF and the ensemble means are more progressive and a bit weaker. This has implications on the eventual break-down on the ridge over the Gulf region by early next week. An even larger storm system is expected to arrive by Monday across the western Aleutians, with wide latitudinal spread in the solutions regarding the position of the surface low. The 12Z GFS was farther south than the model consensus and the ECMWF is indicating more of a dual-low type structure across the Bering Sea. Given the high level of uncertainty in the later portion of the forecast period, a greater weighting of the forecast blend for fronts and pressures was given to the 12Z GEFS mean and the 00Z EC mean, with some of the operational 00/12Z ECMWF added in, with below average confidence beyond Sunday. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Locations along the Panhandle and southeast corner of the mainland will trend drier late this week and into the weekend with the departure of the short-range midweek Gulf system. By Saturday a wavy front near western Alaska should bring a period of light to occasionally moderate precipitation to parts of the western and northern/central Interior. The storm systems affecting the Aleutians will bring episodes of moisture and periods of gusty winds depending on system strength. From late this week into the weekend expect the North Slope region to see above normal temperatures with more modest positive anomalies over the extreme western part of the mainland. Chilly high pressure settling over the southern-southeastern mainland will support below normal temperatures elsewhere. Pattern evolution aloft by late weekend and early next week should favor a warmer trend over most of the state even if surface high pressure may persist over the southeast portions of the state. Hamrick Hazards: - Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Apr 12-Apr 13. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu-Fri, Apr 9-Apr 10. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html