Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 640 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Apr 26 2020 - 12Z Thu Apr 30 2020 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The overall pattern across Alaska during the extended forecast period continues to demonstrate average to slightly above average predictability, particularly early in the forecast period. The 12Z ECMWF/CMC showed relatively good consensus with the ensemble means during days 4-5 (Sun-Mon), and a blend of these solutions was used as a forecast starting point during that time frame. This blend maintained excellent forecast continuity, with a couple relatively deep low pressure systems rotating northward into the Gulf of Alaska during that time frame. Starting on day 6 (Tue) and beyond, a blend of the ECMWF along with increasing ECENS/GEFS ensemble means through time was used, to account for gradually increasing spread. Most guidance continues to show a low pressure system crossing the Aleutians and moving into the western/central Bering Sea Tue/Wed, although spread becomes increasingly large with respect to the specific details of the system structure and timing. The aforementioned blend resulted in a new triple point low that is forecast to develop south of the Alaska Peninsula by next Thu. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Two low pressure systems expected rotate over the Gulf of Alaska to off Southeast and Southern Alaska through early next week will bring an increased threat for high winds across portions of the Panhandle, along with locally heavy precipitation. Potential for precipitation/winds should increase across portions of the Aleutians toward the middle of next week in association with the Bering Sea low pressure system. Farther inland over the state, a couple arctic mid-upper level troughs/impulses will work over the North Slope and the Interior over the coming week, bring below average temperatures through the weekend to portions of eastern mainland Alaska. The air mass across the Interior and the North Slope will remain quite dry through the forecast period, with little in the way of appreciable precipitation. Ryan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sun-Mon, Apr 26-Apr 27. - High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Tue-Wed, Apr 28-Apr 29. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat-Sun, Apr 25-Apr 26. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html