Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 636 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Valid 12Z Thu Apr 30 2020 - 12Z Mon May 04 2020 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Upper pattern across Alaska during the extended forecast period shows an upper high over northwestern areas meandering near the North Slope through next weekend. An upper low initially in the Bering Thu is forecast to move east-southeastward into the backside of a deepening system south of the Gulf. The 12Z GFS/ECMWF (and UKMET through Saturday) showed relatively good consensus with the ensemble means during the period, and a blend of these solutions was used as a forecast starting point. Southern/split portion of the former Aleutian system in the short term is forecast to lift back northward toward the southern Gulf late in the week though its occlusion will likely push northward through the Panhandle. Upper pattern would prevent much northern movement of the surface low toward Southcentral as the upper high shows no signs of budging until at least next week. Models remain in good agreement on curling the low back northward then northwestward, but disagree on the track and northward extent of the low (ECMWF farther north than most). Ensemble means were close to their deterministic counterparts (GFS/GEFS a bit farther south) so split the difference as there was no reason to favor one camp/cluster over the other at this point. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Pattern remains rather unsettled for the Panhandle with lingering rain/snow Thu as an old parent low dissipates in the Gulf. System next weekend to the south would bring in at least some precipitation near/ahead of the occlusion with the heavier rain/snow likely being forced into British Columbia but perhaps into the southern Panhandle, too, depending on triple point development. The Interior, by contrast, will be nearly precipitation-free owing to the upper and sfc high. The Aleutians will see generally light rain after Thu-Sat as the sfc low slowly weakens, but at a slower pace than forecast 24 hrs ago. After a couple lingering cooler than normal days at the start of the period over the eastern part of the mainland, temperatures will moderate back to within several degrees of normal for most of the state with the better chance of sustained above average temperatures near the Bering Sea near the upper ridge axis. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html