Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 509 PM EDT Wed May 06 2020 Valid 12Z Sun May 10 2020 - 12Z Thu May 14 2020 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazard Highlights... A deep storm over the western Bering Sea Sat will slowly fill Sun/Mon. Tight pressure gradients around the low will ease, but still offer some threat of high winds/seas. A developing low/frontal system will threaten the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea by Tue/Wed, digging to the western/southern Gulf of AK next midweek. This storm should be well organized, but not as deep. Upper ridging will meanwhile rise and persist over much of mainland AK. Temperatures will become upwards of 20 degrees above average across parts of mainland AK through the period, with temperatures forecast to rise into the 60s and 70s for portions of the Interior. Underneath, low energies held down over the Gulf of Alaska and northeast Pacific should offer limited influence on AK weather next week, but flow may support periodic rainfall into the southern Alaskan tier. The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian seem most in line with GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and a composite along with the 19 UTC National Blend of Models (NBM) was adopted Sun/Mon. This solution offers system detail consistent with a pattern with above normal predictability. Transitioned to just GEFS/ECMWF ensembles and the NBM by days 7/8 amid growing forecast spread in a pattern with closer to average predictability. WPC continuity was well maintained for this amplified pattern. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat-Wed, May 9-May 13. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sat-Mon, May 9-May 11. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html