Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 626 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 02 2020 - 12Z Sat Jun 06 2020 ...Overview and Weather Hazards/Threats... A mid/upper-level ridge centered across the Beaufort Sea/Arctic Ocean is expected to slowly weaken and meander in place through the period. The ridge will promote well above average temperatures for western mainland Alaska into parts of the Interior through early next week. High temperatures will range from 5 to as much as 20 deg F above average (into the 70s for some locations). To the south, the flow across the North Pacific will ride the west-to-east jet with a lead defined system exiting the region after Tuesday. This will bring rain and some mountain snow to southeastern areas and especially the Panhandle. Amounts may be modest in some locations but generally not heavy. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Latest 12Z guidance has come into better agreement on the timing of the lead system south of the AKPEN, with lingering timing differences represented by a consensus solution between the 12Z GFS and ECMWF. The models/ensembles showed good agreement to the north with the nearly stationary upper high, but struggled with the smaller-scale shortwaves out of the Bering and across the Aleutians. It was here than even the ensemble members differed noticeably on timing but mostly agreed on lower amplitude features (perhaps manifested at the surface by a cold front but depicted as weaker surface troughs for now). Consensus blend approach was sufficient given the lower predictability. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Much above normal temperatures over the Seward Peninsula in western Alaska, Mon, Jun 1. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html