Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 640 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2020 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 09 2020 - 12Z Sat Jun 13 2020 ...Overview and Weather Highlights/Threats... A relatively progressive flow pattern is expected to persist across the North Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska through the extended forecast period, while weak and broad upper ridging persists from the Arctic Ocean into western Canada. Meanwhile, the Interior of Alaska will lie within a region of chaotic and relatively weak easterly upper-level flow. Onshore flow across southern mainland Alaska will keep potential for precipitation up through the period, while weak easterly flow and occasional upper shortwave energy will also keep isolated to occasionally scattered convective activity in the picture across the Interior. A low pressure system expected to pass near the Aleutians as it moves toward the Gulf of Alaska by the middle to late part of next week will bring an increase in shower and perhaps some gusty winds to the Aleutians, with precipitation eventually increasing across the Alaska Peninsula as well. Temperatures in this pattern are expected to be above average through the forecast period, with highs ranging from 5 to 15 deg F above average for many areas, especially across the Interior. Meanwhile, more clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures several degrees below average closer to the coast. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 12Z ECMWF was used heavily early in the extended forecast period, with a gradual transition to more weight placed on ECENS/GEFS ensemble means through time through the period. The GFS was not used this forecast cycle due to a solutions that were well outside consensus over a couple areas, including a system in the Gulf of Alaska by the middle of next week, and across the western Aleutians late next week. Overall, forecast confidence was was average through the extended. Ryan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html