Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 649 PM EDT Mon Jun 08 2020 Valid 12Z Fri Jun 12 2020 - 12Z Tue Jun 16 2020 ...Overview and Weather Highlights/Threats... A relatively progressive flow pattern is expected to persist across the North Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska through the extended forecast period, while weak and broad upper ridging persists from the Arctic Ocean into western Canada. By the weekend into early next week, upper ridging should expand further, with heights expected to gradually rise across mainland Alaska. through late this week, the Interior of Alaska will lie within a region of chaotic and relatively weak flow. This regime will keep isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms a possibility, more widespread in higher terrain of the Alaska and Brooks Ranges, through the weekend. The Aleutians will see a couple potential rounds of precipitation and gusty winds, the first Fri-Sat as one low pressure system passes across/near the island chain, and another by next Mon-Tue. Temperatures in this pattern are expected to be above average through the forecast period, with highs ranging from 5 to 15 deg F above average for many areas, especially across western mainland Alaska. Temperatures across the Interior may begin to warm further by early next week as upper ridging begins to expand across mainland Alaska. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... A blend of the 12Z ECMWF/GFS was used during days 4-5 (Fri-Sat), with majority weight placed on ECENS/GEFS ensemble means from day 6 (Sun) onward. Model/ensemble consensus has improved substantially during the extended forecast period over the pasts couple days, and spread does not really begin to increase substantially until the end of the forecast period. Therefore, forecast confidence was at least slightly above average during days 4-7, and average (considering the time frame) on day 8. Ryan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu-Sun, Jun 11-Jun 14. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html