Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
637 PM EDT Tue Jun 09 2020
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 13 2020 - 12Z Wed Jun 17 2020
...Overview and Weather Highlights/Threats...
During the period /Sat-Wed/ across the region, a relatively
progressive flow pattern is expected with a pair of storm systems
to track across the North Pacific and Gulf of Alaska, while aloft,
ridging builds and extends westward over the central to northern
mainland. In between, relatively weak flow aloft will promote the
development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
favoring the terrain areas and Brooks Ranges through this weekend.
The Aleutians will see a couple potential rounds of precipitation
and gusty winds, the first at the start of the period as one low
pressure system passes across/near the island chain, and another
by next Mon-Tue with the potential of a deeper/stronger system.
For temperatures, above normal readings are expected through much
of the period. Temperatures across the Interior may begin to warm
further by early next week as upper ridging begins to expand
across mainland Alaska.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Initially, a higher component of the 12Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS was
incorporated for Days 4-5 (Sat-Sun) with a quick transition to a
heavily weighted ECENS and GEFS mean blend for Day 6-8. Forecast
confidence is average to slightly above average with relatively
good agreement in the later periods compared to recent runs.
Taylor
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards:
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland
Alaska, Fri-Sun, Jun 12-Jun 14.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html