Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 556 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Valid 12Z Fri Jun 19 2020 - 12Z Tue Jun 23 2020 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Strong upper ridging over Siberia/northeastern Russia will favor troughing to its east, centered along 150W, albeit in two pieces. The northern component will be an upper low likely remaining over the Arctic Ocean but perhaps swinging modest height falls across the North Slope this weekend. The southern component will be a lead and then secondary upper low just south of the eastern Aleutians. This former will be associated with a front and trailing wave development near the Panhandle that will take a few days to push through. The latter has the potential to be a more robust system lifting out of the northern Central Pacific toward the Gulf by next week Mon-Tue. The 12Z guidance was in decent agreement but differed most on the more robust system over the Pacific, especially the 12Z ECMWF (slower and farther west/south). The 12Z GFS clustered near the 12Z GEFS and 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean and was the preferred deterministic model. However, it may be too aggressive with height falls over the Beaufort/North Slope around the upper low that it takes farther south than the consensus. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Temperatures will be within several degrees of normal through the period, with near/above normal over western/interior areas and near/below normal from Southcentral to the Panhandle. There, clouds/showers will temper afternoon maxes Fri-Sun until the lead system moves on. Rainfall is not expected to be very heavy due to weaker forcing overall. Over the interior, afternoon convection will be possible but perhaps not widespread owing to weak ridging between low centers to the north and south along with lifted indices marginally sub-zero. By next week, Pacific system may bring in more appreciable rainfall to southern coastal areas, but confidence is low in timing/placement should a more offshore track to the east rather than northeast materialize. Kept the hazard depiction blank for now. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html