Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 608 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 20 2020 - 12Z Wed Jun 24 2020 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Strong upper ridging over Siberia/northeastern Russia and northwest of the Paphanaumokuakea Marine National Monument will favor troughing along 150W, albeit in two pieces. The northern component will be an upper low likely remaining over the Arctic Ocean but perhaps swinging modest height falls across northwestern/northern areas next week. The southern component will be the remains of system through the Yukon early Saturday with a more robust system south of the Aleutians. The 12Z guidance was in decent agreement but differed on the speed and track of the Pacific system that should steadily curl into the Gulf by next Tue-Wed. The consensus trend has been a bit slower but mostly aligned in a similar track to continuity. The 12Z deterministic models had varying degrees of resemblance to the ensemble means and none was preferred overall, though the ECMWF was perhaps a contender for the Mon-Wed period. Before that, the 12Z GFS was comparable though still perhaps a bit stronger with height falls than the others. To the south, the GFS was like the ECMWF/Canadian with the system into the Gulf but lagged well behind the ECMWF/Canadian with another system to its southwest. Overall favored the ensemble consensus to limit daily changes to the forecast. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Temperatures will tend to be near to below normal for most of the state, with near/above normal temperatures over western areas under weak ridging. Over the interior, afternoon convection will be possible but perhaps not widespread after Saturday owing to weak ridging between low centers to the north and south along with lifted indices marginally sub-zero. Old occlusion on Saturday may focus more rain/convection north of the Brooks Range. By next week, Pacific system may bring in more appreciable rainfall to southern coastal areas, perhaps not until late next Tuesday. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during this forecast period. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html