Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
620 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 01 2020 - 12Z Sun Jul 05 2020
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite for days 4-8 was
primarily derived from a blend of reasonably well clustered
solutions from the 12 UTC ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means
along with the 19 UTC National Blend of Models. This maintained
good WPC continuity.
...Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Yet another organized Bering Sea low is expected to push east
across mainland Alaska along with a slowly weakening surface front
Wednesday into Thursday to generate unsettled and showery
conditions with passage. Meanwhile upstream, a deepened low
pressure system is forecast to lift and gradually weaken across
the Bering Sea Wednesday-Friday as a lead front with enhanced
rains works across the Aleutians then into southwest/AKpen and
western Alaska. A second deepened low may follow into the
Aleutians and Bering Sea Friday and next weekend with another
weather focusing lead front. These systems also offer a maritime
wind and wave hazard. This storm track favors warming upper ridge
building downstream into mainland Alaska for the upcoming holiday
weekend.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html