Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
602 PM EDT Fri Jul 03 2020
Valid 12Z Tue Jul 07 2020 - 12Z Sat Jul 11 2020
...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Upper troughing initially over northeastern Russia and
northwestern Canada Tuesday will focus toward western/southwestern
Alaska by the end of next week. A system in the Gulf Tuesday will
move southeastward toward the southern Panhandle and Haida Gwaii
as a northern stream front pushes out of Southcentral. The 12Z
GFS/ECMWF paired fairly well with their ensemble means (with
partial support from the UKMET/Canadian) such that a blended
solution served well through the period. Ensembles have wavered a
bit on system timing especially out of the central North Pacific,
but a blended solution should minimize further refinements.
Increased ensemble weighting was used to balance the uncertainty
by later next week, which should carry a system through the Gulf
again toward the southern Panhandle and Hadai Gwaii.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Increased troughing will promote cooler than average temperatures
over most of the state next week, perhaps by 10-15 degrees in some
spots. Extreme northwestern coastal areas may see near to above
average temperatures with an offshore/downsloping flow off the
Brooks Range. Showers will be favored over the Alaska Range amid
daytime heating and cooling mid-level temperatures. Light showers
are possible over the western Aleutians midweek as a dying warm
front approaches from the south and a cold front approaches from
the north. Showers may be enhanced over Southcentral later in the
week as the upper trough from the northwest sinks toward the
region. Rainfall is not expected to be heavy over a widespread
area.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards: No significant hazards are expected over Alaska during
this forecast period.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html