Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 553 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 27 2020 - 12Z Fri Jul 31 2020 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation... Complicated pattern evolution in the northern stream/high latitudes continues to plague model/ensemble consistency. Farther south across the north central Pacific, seems that the guidance is staring to come into better agreement, but still lacks a good/solid consensus. Approach to the forecast was to use a broad consensus, despite the differences, to start with a trend toward only the ensemble means by next Wed. The deterministic models clustered either quicker or slower than the ensemble means across the Aleutians, and NW or SE of the ensembles over the Arctic/Beafort. This suggested that the intermediate ensemble mean consensus was desirable especially later in the period which should minimize changes to the forecast. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Affects of the upper/sfc low in the Arctic/Beaufort will depend on its proximity to the North Slope, and today's forecast was a bit closer/stronger than 24 hrs ago. Thus, chances of breezy and showery weather have increased for the North Slope and Brooks Range early next week. To the south, locally heavy rain is possible along and north of the Alaska Range Monday as the Gulf upper low pulls away. Some squashed ridging moving in from the west should dry out the interior a bit Tue-Thu. Frontal boundary to the north will slowly press southward, bringing an increased chance of showers and some storms with it. Temperatures will generally be below normal over much of the state owing to the upper trough/low and near to below normal heights and 850mb temperatures, with the exception over southwestern areas where brief ridging will pass through Tuesday. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun, Jul 26. - Heavy rain across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon, Jul 27. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html