Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 601 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Aug 02 2020 - 12Z Thu Aug 06 2020 ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation... An upper low over the Bering Sea will move eastward into Southwestern Alaska then the Gulf next week. A lead upper low in the Gulf Sunday will weaken and move out on Monday. The latest 12Z deterministic guidance showed good agreement with the ensembles Sun-Tue with the Bering system before they dispersed from the ensemble consensus with upstream (and weaker) systems. Opted to rule out the stronger 12Z Canadian next Wed with its much deeper system in the Gulf, though it remains plausible. By Wed/Thu, increasingly favored the ensembles (12Z GEFS mean and 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean) with some weighting of the GFS/ECMWF as the upper flow becomes more progressive, flatter, and therefore more uncertain regarding system timing/track. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Lingering upper low in the Gulf will provide a waning focus for some modest rain over the Panhandle Sunday as the old parent low dissipates. More robust system in the Bering will be the main driver of heavier rain, initially over southern coastal areas (Southwest through Southcentral) as the triple point takes over east of Kodiak late Mon into Tue. This will progress eastward to southeastern areas into the Panhandle by Tue into Wed as the front moves eastward into Canada. Much more showery weather is expected next Wed/Thu over the Aleutians across southern areas under the upper low. Expect below normal high temperatures across most of the state next week, with greatest negative anomalies over the far north (Brooks Range and North Slope) and south/southeast. Clouds/precip should promote broader coverage of near to slightly above normal min temps south of the Brooks Range. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy rain possible across portions of eastern Alaska, Sun, Aug 2. - Heavy rain possible across portions of coastal southern Alaska, Sat-Mon, Aug 1-Aug 3. - Heavy rain possible across portions of the Alaskan Panhandle, Tue-Wed, Aug 4-Aug 5. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html