Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 425 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 Valid 12Z Fri Aug 07 2020 - 12Z Tue Aug 11 2020 ...Guidance Evaluation... The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models, 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and the 19 UTC National Blend of Models days 4-8. Guidance shows a reasonably similar larger scale pattern, but quite a bit of embedded system variance. The composite highlights the more predictable forecast components at the cost of some less defined systems. ...Weather Highlights/Threats and Predictability... Potent short range Bering Sea storm energies will weaken across the Interior Friday into the weekend, but will remain an enhanced rain focus. Ample storm energy in this stream and with less certainty from the northern Pacific will meanwhile transfer downstream into unsettled northern Gulf of Alaska waters to offer additional enhanced rains, especially over favored southern and southeastern Alaskan coastal terrain. Substantial uncertainty remains with subsequent offshore lows, but there is some longer range guidance signal for an organized low to reach the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea in about a week. Otherwise, WPC progs only show modest development and effect pending a stronger guidance signal with subsequent model runs. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the southern coastal areas of Alaska, Thu-Fri, Aug 6-Aug 7. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html