Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 530 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2020 Valid 12Z Wed Aug 12 2020 - 12Z Sun Aug 16 2020 ...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences... A Bering/Aleutian system on Wednesday will move eastward into the Gulf and eventually the Panhandle by next weekend. The 12Z models and ensembles offered a reasonable clustering with this system with the exception of the Canadian. Embedded waves along the front may ripple through and perhaps slow the system a bit, but the overall pattern will be quasi-progressive. To the north, the 12Z GFS/GEFS (and somewhat the Canadian) handled an upper low north of Wrangel Island differently (meandering north/northwestward) than the ECMWF/UKMET (which continued eastward). Preferred the eastward consensus with the support of the ECMWF ensembles. By later in the period, GFS/ECMWF offered similar enough solutions with the then-Gulf system to include with their ensemble means as the upper/sfc lows progress eastward. Next system may enter the western Bering by then and a consensus between the quicker GFS and slower ECMWF sufficed as it was near the ensemble means. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Bering/Aleutian system will bring showers/rain initially to the eastern Aleutians with breezy conditions as well as the modest parent low scrapes the islands. Expect light to modest rainfall into the AKPen as the warm front and triple point approach early Wed. Some locally heavier rainfall is possible on southeast-facing and terrain-enhanced areas over Kodiak, but overall rainfall will be modest. Rain will spread eastward across Southcentral and especially the southern/southeastern Kenai as the triple point takes over in the Gulf. Some modest to heavier rain could push into the Panhandle assuming the system continues eastward, though the higher precipitable water values (>1.25") may stay near/south of the new triple point and warm front. Daytime temperatures will be cooler than normal along southern coastal areas but warmer than normal over the Interior and especially western areas as upper ridging attempts to hold. Overnight mins will trend a bit milder than normal into next weekend. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html