Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 709 PM EDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Oct 11 2020 - 12Z Thu Oct 15 2020 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The trend of evolving the closed low over the Bering Sea/elongated trough over the Gulf/closed low reaching the Mainland from the northeast into a mean trough over the mainland persists once again with the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance. Consensus places a lasting surface low near the Gulf of Alaska while another area of low pressure tracks southeast from the Bering sea and weakens along the way/absorbs into the larger circulation. This will keep much of the southern coast and the Southeast cloudy with scattered/widespread precipitation. The GFS continues to be somewhat of an outlier therefore minimal inclusion for this package. The 12Z ECWMF was the preferred model as it handled the lows in the Bering and Gulf the best at this point given the uncertainty of timing, location and strength. The blend for this issuance was the NBM /12Z ECWMF. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Much of the southern coast and portions of the panhandle with have precipitation throughout the extended period, with periods of heavier intensity especially the Southeast and areas of higher terrain by the middle of next week. Cloud cover will hang around for much of the southern half of the state and for the North Slope for several days. If the low tracks to the eastern Gulf/south of the panhandle, this favors higher precipitation to the southern islands and drier further north. Lowering heights aloft may produce scattered precipitation at times over the mainland which will be in the gradient between Arctic high pressure and Gulf low pressure. The Aleutians should see brisk and unsettled conditions. Daily highs will mainly range from the 30s to 50s from north to south this weekend, however cooler air will begin to settle in over the state. Highs will range from the upper teens near the Arctic to the 40s in across the southern Mainland/panhandle by next week and overnight lows will range from the 10s to the 30s/40s. For portions of the Panhandle and the southern coast this will be near or slightly below normal for mid-October. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across much of the Alaska Panhandle, Wed, Oct 14. WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html