Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 Valid 12Z Wed Nov 11 2020 - 12Z Sun Nov 15 2020 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model run to run continuity is less than stellar through medium range time scales in an active pattern with above normal forecast spread associated with a series of dynamic embedded features. Accordingly, and in collaboration with local forecast offices, the WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of the 12 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean, the 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and the 19 UTC National Blend of Models. Despite it's own run to run variance, the 12 UTC ECMWF model was included in this blend to provide better offshore low system detail/strength as consistent with favorable upper support potential since this model seemed most in line with ensemble means. WPC continuity was average to marginal. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Deep Bering Sea low pressure next midweek will bring bouts of strong winds/waves and enhanced precipitation from the Aleutians/Bering Sea into parts of the western/southern mainland. Heavy precipitation emphasis will increasingly transition to the southern coast/Panhandle later next week and weekend, as low pressure becomes established over the quite unsettled Gulf of Alaska and as northern Bering low pressure slowly weakens. In this pattern, above to well above normal temperatures next week for much of the state will significantly cool, especially maximum values, late next week into next weekend as an upper trough/low moves overhead. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html