Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 505 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 Valid 12Z Thu Nov 12 2020 - 12Z Mon Nov 16 2020 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of the 12 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean, the 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and the 19 UTC National Blend of Models day 4-6 Thursday-Saturday in a pattern with near average predictability. The 12 UTC ECMWF model was included in this blend to provide better offshore low system detail/strength as consistent with favorable upper support potential since this model seemed most in line with ensemble means. Prefer to quickly transition to just the ensemble means day 7/8 amid growing uncertainty and run to run variance in order to maintain max WPC continuity. ...Weather/Threats Highlights... Eastern Bering Sea low pressure later this week will bring bouts of enhanced winds/waves and precipitation to the Aleutians/Bering Sea and into western Alaska, potentially reinvigorated by additional system development by early next week. Heavy precipitation emphasis will increasingly transition to the southern coast/Panhandle later week and the weekend as low pressure becomes established over the quite unsettled Gulf of Alaska. In this pattern, above to well above normal temperatures in the short term will significantly cool, especially maximum values, late week through next weekend as an upper trough/low moves overhead. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html