Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
538 PM EST Tue Jan 05 2021
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 09 2021 - 12Z Wed Jan 13 2021
...Stormy Weather from the Aleutians to the Gulf of Alaska and
southern/southeastern Alaska...
...Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment and Weather/Hazards
Highlights...
A quite stormy weather pattern will continue across the Aleutians
and the Gulf of Alaska region this weekend into next week.
Guidance offers a well defined signal in support of strong system
development and lifting over the east-central Gulf whose prolonged
onshore moisture fetch is expected to fuel a threat of heavy
precipitation for southern and southeast Alaska.
Meanwhile upstream, it is also likely that yet another strong
storm will cross the Aleutians this weekend. The deep low is
slated to enter the western Gulf and may combine with lingering
lead storm energies to maintain deepened and complex low
potentials into next midweek in an unsettled pattern set to focus
over the northern Gulf and vicinity. Given the predicted intensity
of these systems, there will be strong winds and hazardous marine
conditions. The pattern should also increasingly favor
establishment of much above normal temperatures across the
Interior this period.
The WPC Alaskan product suite was derived from a composite of well
clustered mid-larger scale guidance from the 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian and the 19 UTC National Blend of Models
(NBM) Sun-Mon before transition to still compatible GEFS/ECMWF
ensemble means guidance and the NBM by next Tue/Wed consistent
with growing forecast spread and less then stellar model embedded
system run to run continuity. This solution was collaborated with
local Alaskan forecast offices and offshore lows were manually
deepened consistent with favorable upper support predictability
and to counter weakening effects inherent from the blending
process.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and
mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Jan 10-Jan 11.
WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html