Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 515 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 Valid 12Z Tue Jan 26 2021 - 12Z Sat Jan 30 2021 ...Deep/Stormy lows to Threaten Alaska next week... ...Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment... An active storm track with a series of potent closed lows/troughs will reach the Aleutians and Bering Sea next week. Ample downstream energy transfers over the AKPen/Southwest AK/Kodiac Island and into the Gulf of Alaska offer more complex models depictions of potentially deep systems, but guidance flow evolutions and have trended in better agreement over the past few days to bolster forecast confidence. The WPC Alaskan medium range product suite were primarily derived from a blend of reasonably well clustered guidance from the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian models days 4-5 (Tue-Wed) along with the 19 UTC National Blend of Models. Opted to replace the UKMET/Canadian in the blend for days 6-8 with the more compatible 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means to maintain max WPC product continuity next Thu-Sat. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A well organized but exiting lead system digging though the eastern Gulf of Alaska will bring some high winds/waves and precipitation to the unsettled region and effect the Southeast Panhandle Tue into Wed. Meanwhile, an upstream and very deep system will spread heavy wrapping precipitation and a threat of high winds/waves to the Bering Sea and Aleutians. This system already has a well defined mid-latitude satellite signature off eastern Asia and offers a substantial maritime threat with a surface pressure risk to drop into the 950-960 mb range into the Bering given favorable upper support. Details are less certain with subsequent downstream transition across the AKPen/Southwest AK/Kodiac Island, but guidance seems to rebound in support of a pattern favoring another deepened northern to eastern Gulf of Alaskan low by later next week to monitor. Schichtel Hazards: - High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Tue-Wed, Jan 26-Jan 27. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be found at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html